Lyme Disease in Canada

Our consensus model projected that the area of suitable climate in North America could increase from present by approximately 50% by 2070. In areas beyond the current northern limit of D. variabilis, climate could become more suitable for the tick than at present, possibly resulting in a northward expansion in Canada, but the potential suitability of the southern range of D. variabilis could decrease, depending on the region and climate model. Due to the ability of D. variabilis to harbor and transmit pathogens, a change in the distribution of this species could also affect the risk of human and animal diseases throughout North America, particularly in the northern range of the tick.